Positioning for Leadership in Medicare Advantage Brokerage

Few would dispute that Medicare Advantage (MA) is a long-term growth sector—projected to cover 51.2 million lives by 2034. At the same time, the market is entering its third straight year in an adverse cycle driven by medical utilization and cost trends, reimbursement changes, and resulting carrier retrenchment.

This research note focuses on MA brokerages, an often-overlooked but indispensable fulcrum not only for distributing plans but also for helping carriers understand, manage, and retain members. In this note, we aim to cut through the regulatory and market noise and present a data-driven picture. We explore how carriers respond to growing financial pressures, and how this creates for brokers both a near-term obligation to build resiliency and a long-term opportunity to differentiate. We think there is a high likelihood of consolidation activity among MA brokerages in the coming years. The universe of PE buyers, while narrower than it once was, includes a number of well-educated groups willing to front-run a market that will likely open back up in a few years’ time as the dust settles. Those early movers will take advantage of near-term market disruption to identify winners—and position them as market consolidators.

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